雖然看起來機率好像不是很大,但如果我們換個情境把把社群網路給考量進來的話,2016年,英國心理學家Robin Dunbar在研究社群網站上的朋友數量時,利用自然社交網路(natural social networks)的概念,指出在個人社群網路的經營上,我們會有不同親近層次(layers)的朋友,真正稱得上朋友的大概只有150人,但將親近層次往外擴展,還可能會有500個稱不上朋友但足以溝通交談(acquaintances)以及1500個僅止於辨識外貌的點頭之交。[9]
這裡的群眾指的是和他同場審理案件的法官或者是證人們。我們的決策很多時候會受到其他人所影響,例如,當目擊證人 A 指認嫌犯之後,發現目擊證人 B 也指認同一個嫌犯,那麼 A 的信心(confidence-accuracy )就會提升;相反的如果其他人和 A 的想法不一樣,他的信心就會降低[10]。換言之,如果某個虐童案群情激憤社會壓力巨大,這場已經有 4 個法官都認為被告有罪的時候,就算你覺得事有蹊蹺案情不單純,你也不一定有信心提出不同的意見。
[f]:電影《十二怒漢》當中一個陪審員 Henry Fonda 超強的一個人坦 11 個,扭轉了判決結果,對這部影片有興趣的人可以參考這裡。
參考資料:
[1] Aronson, E.、Wilson, T. D.、Akert, R. M.(2015)。Social Psychology(余伯泉、陳舜文、危芷芬與李茂興譯)(第8版)。台灣:揚智文化。
[2]Deffenbacher, K. A., Bornstein, B. H., Penrod, S. D., & McGorty, E. K. (2004). A meta-analytic review of the effects of high stress on eyewitness memory. Law and Human Behavior, 28(6), 687.
[3] Zajonc, R. B. (1965). Social facilitation. Science, 149(3681), 269-274.
[4]Schmitt, B. H., Gilovich, T., Goore, N., & Joseph, L. (1986). Mere presence and social facilitation: One more time. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22(3), 242-248.
[5]Zajonc, R. B. (1980). Feeling and thinking: Preferences need no inferences. American Psychologist, 35(2), 151.
[6]Mullen, B., Brown, R., & Smith, C. (1992). Ingroup bias as a function of salience, relevance, and status: An integration. European Journal of Social Psychology, 22(2), 103-122.
[7]Tajfel, H. (1982). Social psychology of intergroup relations. Annual Review of Psychology, 33(1), 1-39.
[8]Simons, D. J., & Chabris, C. F. (1999). Gorillas in our midst: Sustained inattentional blindness for dynamic events. Perception, 28(9), 1059-1074.
[9]Loftus, E. F. (1979). The malleability of human memory: Information introduced after we view an incident can transform memory. Am Sci, 67(3), 312-320.
[10]Busey, T. A., Tunnicliff, J., Loftus, G. R., & Loftus, E. F. (2000). Accounts of the confidence-accuracy relation in recognition memory. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 7(1), 26-48.
[11]Loftus, E. F., Miller, D. G., & Burns, H. J. (1978). Semantic integration of verbal information into a visual memory. Journal of experimental psychology: Human learning and memory, 4(1), 19.
[12]Cialdini, R. B.(2017)。鋪梗力──影響力教父最新研究與技術,在開口前就說服對方(劉怡女譯)。台灣:時報文化(Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade)。
[13]Lassiter, G. D. (2010). Videotaped interrogations and confessions: What’s obvious in hindsight may not be in foresight. Law and Human Behavior, 34(1), 41-42.
[14]Hastie, R., Penrod, S., & Pennington, N. (1983). Inside the jury: The Lawbook Exchange, Ltd.
[15]Nemeth, C. J. (1986). Differential contributions of majority and minority influence. Psychological Review, 93(1), 23.
Van Rijckeghem, Caroline, and Beatrice Weder. “Bureaucratic corruption and the rate of temptation: do wages in the civil service affect corruption, and by how much?.” Journal of development economics 65.2 (2001): 307-331.
Abbink, Klaus. Fair salaries and the moral costs of corruption. No. 1/2000. Bonn Econ Discussion Papers, 2000. Mahmood, Mabroor. “Corruption in civil administration: Causes and cures.”Humanomics 21.3 (2005): 62-84.
[1]Arkes, H. R., & Mellers, B. A. (2002). Do juries meet our expectations? Law and Human Behavior, 26(6), 625.
[2]Lee, H. (1990). To kill a mockingbird. Litigation, 68-58.
[3]Bornstein, B. H., & Greene, E. (2011). Jury decision making: Implications for and from psychology. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 20(1), 63-67.
[4]Kalven, H., Zeisel, H., Callahan, T., & Ennis, P. (1966). The american jury: Little, Brown Boston.其實這個研究也進一步的去談到,在證據清楚的情況下,陪審團與法官的意見也比較容易一致。當然這個研究比較古老(經典),所以後續也有其他研究進行檢驗,並且認為需要考量更多因素[5]。
[5]Gastwirth, J. L., & Sinclair, M. D. (2004). A re-examination of the 1966 Kalven–Zeisel study of judge–jury agreements and disagreements and their causes. Law, Probability and Risk, 3(3-4), 169-191.
[6]Hastie, R., & Pennington, N. (2000). 13 Explanation-Based Decision Making. Judgment and decision making: An interdisciplinary reader, 212.
[7]海苔熊. (2015, February 7). 人為疏失還是機械故障?你怎麼想,決定你對鬼島的希望. PanSci 泛科學. Retrieved March 8, 2018 from pansci.asia/archives/75027
[8] Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1988). Explanation-based decision making: Effects of memory structure on judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 14(3), 521.
[9]Aronson, E.、Wilson, T. D.、Akert, R. M.(2015)。Social Psychology(余伯泉、陳舜文、危芷芬與李茂興譯)(第8版)。台灣:揚智文化。